Market participants are encouraged rational and vigilant, do not drift with the index rising constantly. Market participants also need to be alert to the possibility of bubbles (bubble) in the financial sector.
Similarly, delivered the opinion of Bhakti Securities head of research Edwin Sebayang, capital markets analyst Felix Sindunatha, and Head of Research Recapital Securities Pardomuan Sihombing. The three contacted separately, last week.
Edwin Sebayang said, based on calculations from the fundamental side, the current stock price at the Indonesian Stock Exchange is considered expensive or overvalued. The condition is actually been going on for a few weeks when there is action to buy shares en masse by investors, especially foreign investors.
Strangely, continued Edwin, foreign investors bought more if not ever stop. Over the last 14 weeks, the carrying value of net purchases of foreign investors about Rp 14 trillion.
The highest increase
In that period, Composite Stock Price Index has risen from 2826 levels to 3547 levels or up approximately 25 percent-one of the highest growth among world exchanges.
However, continued Edwin, one day, the market will experience overbought, so the possibility of the index will be corrected quite large. "I believe, in the future will be more rational market participants so that they will no longer dare to take a buy position. In such conditions, the market likely will be corrected quite deep. However, one day foreign investors will realize gains by selling stocks, "he said.
Edwin estimate, if the market has been overbought, JCI 200-300 points will be corrected and returned to the position 3200-3300.
The position of JCI in the range that is considered as a fairly moderate position on the basis of fundamental performance issuers in BEI in the first half of 2010, including expectations of improved performance in the third quarter of 2010.
In stock trading at BEI, last Friday, stock index rose sharply again, that is 45.8 points, or 1.3 percent, to 3547. Meanwhile, LQ-45 index rose 1.49 percent to a level of 661.6 and Kompas100 Index rose 1.45 percent to a level of 835.4.
Felix Sindunatha capital market observers say, the future of global capital markets will most likely be swamped by the flow of new funds following the policy of the Fed to return the funds poured billions of dollars
Funds will be channeled to the U.S. financial sector is sure to seep into the capital markets a number of countries, including the Indonesian capital markets which became one of the world's premier investment destination at this time because it provides high yield rate.
However, on the other hand, the Fed's policy indicates that the U.S. economic recovery post-crisis 2008 still does not meet expectations.
Head of Research Recapital Securities Pardomuan Sihombing said that the policy of the Fed for more money poured billions of dollars into the financial sector will lead to inflation of the financial sector as the money does not go into the real sector.
In the short term, that decision is going to affect the increase in stock price. However, in the long term would be a time bomb because any time bubbles that occurred in the financial sector can be broken as in 2008. (REI)
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